Health Care Reform Bill
Since only a small handful of people have actually read the 2074 page health care reform bill, allow me to paraphrase some of the points given in recent speeches and combine them with the facts of today.
1. Our health care is a broken system and it's bankrupting the American citizen.
Are you sure? I'll give that a maybe, but is it health care that is bankrupting America, or is it the effects of frivolous lawsuits on health care providers? Oh, so it's complicated. Well then if that's the case, let's not throw out broad statements just to make a great sound bite.
But let's assume it is bankrupting America. Does that mean the answer is a government takeover? We all know how good the government is at running things. They couldn't run a small business for 2 months without driving it so far into the ground it would come out on the other side.
2. If you like your current health care plan, you can keep it.
So what I'm being sold is: health care is broken, but if we want to keep our broken health care plan, yes we can. That's about as desperate of a sales speech as I've ever heard. Basically it means they'll spend a ton of money trying to fix something, and if it doesn't work, the people can just stay the course, only with $940 billion less. Now that is an attractive offer... for a MORON.
3. Health care reform will save $1.2 trillion dollars in its second ten years.
Please, please, try not to laugh. In all seriousness, all who believe that raise your hand. What's that? Not raising your hand? I'm shocked. If the government has an example of anything they have done on at least half this scale that saved the money they said it initially would, a bogus pledge like that might actually carry water. But really, $1.2 Trillion dollars? I would love to meet one person who sincerely believes the government can do something this drastic that will save $1.2 trillion dollars. Now keep in mind, $1.2 trillion right now is about $2.4 trillion in 20 years at the current inflation rate. So if in 20 years it saved us $1.2 trillion that's 600 billion in today's terms. So how much is it going to save? I mean since we're lying about numbers anyway, how much is it? $600 billion? $2.4 Trillion? What's it going to be? The government doesn't know what something is going to cost NEXT YEAR, much less at the end of the "second ten years". Who speaks like that anyways? I'm offended that the government treats the people like a bunch of sheep, who can't possibly know what's best for them.
Realistically, this reform will not save the country money. What's that? How do I know? You need proof? Let's take a look at government experience:
The U.S. Post Office was formed 235 years ago. It's broke, subsidized, and can't compete with private UPS and FedEx.
Social Security was formed 75 years ago. It's broke & failing worse each year.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - 72 and 42 years old respectively. They are broke, failing, corrupt, and caused the housing crash and credit melt down of 2008.
Medicare and Medicaid formed 45 years ago and the government has been trying to sweep them under the rug ever since. They are bankrupt failures.
Amtrak was formed 40 years ago. Guess what? It runs at a loss and it was bailed out less than 2 years ago.
So wait, maybe the government has turned over a new leaf. I mean, that's all old stuff right? Maybe we should talk about the $787 billion dollar Stimulus Bill of 2009 which has and will continue to primarily benefit the recipients of non-bid government contracts. And how about Cash for Clunkers? You know, the catch phrase program that stimulated the economy of Japan? Those are all screaming successes right? The stimulus bill fixed unemployment right? What's that, it's worse now? Even worse than Obama said it would be if they didn't pass the stimulus bill? Oh, did anyone tell the government?
Anyone with an IQ over 7 should see a pattern here. Please forgive me if I hear the government say they will spend $940 Billion and save $1.2 trillion while making my health care better when their track record is a resume full of failure.
Comments
Good stuff, Matt. Agree with everything but the Fannie/Freddie part.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Matt - I always like your blog posts and find them interesting. I wanted to lob a few grenades at you. First, medical malpractice as tenet of health care reform is a red herring. Medical malpractice costs are less than 1% of total health care costs. Further, Texas which came as close to abolishing medical malpractice suits as any state in the union in 2003 has seen some of the highest increases in cost of care and insurance rates. There is simply no correlation to the two. Further, now that we can compare similar demographic regions with limited legal access in medical malpractice claims to full access to courts in medical malpractice claims there is no basis for the myth of "defensive medicine."
I think many of your points and concerns are valid. The glaring weakness in this bill is that it focuses on access and cost controls are a secondary concept. While access to medical care is a large problem in the US, I think it is fair to say that the biggest problem is the cost of medical care as a percentage of GDP.
I agree that pointing out the shortcomings of Government run programs is largely shooting fish in a barrel. However, it is equally true that government intervention is predicated on an untenable failing of the free market. We have the USPS because it is simply not profitable to run a daily mail service at the cost in which we charge. There are similar cases to be made for Social Security and medicare, etc. . (I am going to wager there is not going to be a stampede of companies looking to insure people over 65 for less than gazillion $$$ a month sans Medicare).
At the end of the day I doubt this bill is panacea nor pariah. I would wager it will be like other government programs. Every citizen gripes and complains about it, but any politician who moves to abolish it does so at their own peril.
Maybe I'm wrong. I did pick Kansas to win it all. I enjoy your thoughts on these matters.
Monday, March 22, 2010