Oil, Gas Prices, and the Future

I have to look at the bright side here. I know some might call me crazy here, but I almost welcome high gas prices. Katie is a stay at home mom, and my commute is between 12-15 minutes. So from a selfish perspective, the pain at the pump that most people are feeling right now just isn't that painful for us. At the same time, lets just pretend that a whole dollar fell off the gas prices, and took the national average to just over 3 dollars a gallon. Well, that's still expensive gas, which means we're at the point now where it's worse than horrible. So prices getting a lot better, barely puts a dent in reality.

But back to welcoming high gas prices. High gas prices are pretty much the only thing that will kick energy innovation into high gear, because frankly most of the solutions being pitched right now just aren't going to cut it. I would even say it's an embarrassment to U.S. innovation that the 145 million cars on our highways are virtually running on the same fuel that the first cars ran on exactly 100 years ago. In 1908 the Model T ran on gasoline and ethanol. Now in 2008, our cars (vast, vast majority) are running on gasoline and ethanol. The Model T also ran at about 18 mpg (miles per gallon). I think the only reason we're not still driving the Model T is probably because it wouldn't pass today's safety inspections.

Ethanol is a great buzz word; I sure fell for it a couple years ago. And FYI, ethanol is not going to cut it. It's caused the price of certain crops to skyrocket, so many countries can't even afford basic foods now. And it takes a boat load of corn and 80 gallons of water to make a gallon of ethanol fuel. That's immeasurably ridiculous.

So how about Hybrids? That word is about as grey as "broadband internet service". What does it really mean? You could buy a 2 wheel drive hybrid Tahoe and get 22 mpg (Hwy). But wait there's more. What if you opted to save $15,000 and get the non-hybrid version, and just take the 19 mpg (Hwy). Pretty simply math here; for 15 grand you get 3 more miles per gallon. NOT GOOD ENOUGH.

Now, there certainly are some hybrids that are just killing it out there. They're not all marketing scams. The Prius boasts more than 45 mpg. That's pretty impressive. For me, I'm not really drinking the hybrid Kool-Aid yet. My well performing sports sedan gets close to 30 mpg on the hwy, and I'm fine with that for now. Premium gas and all.

And as many are pitching, the future is not in driving less for me. It's not in ethanol, hybrids, carpooling, windfall profits taxing, or any of the other insufficient ideas out there. It's not in better fuel economy as far as I'm concerned. It's in DIFFERENT fuel economy. We're a hundred years past the Model T right now. I'm actually shocked that my car isn't running on tap water, nuclear energy, batteries, stored solar power, or frankly anything other than the energy that OPEC gouges for.

Quick reminder, it's takes between 2 and 4 dollars to get a barrel of oil out of the ground in the Middle East. The current market value for that barrel is close to $140. And crying about it doesn't do much, because it's a great case and point for Economics 101: Supply and Demand. Very few people control the supply, and about a billion people feed the demand.

So I look forward to high gas prices. Real pain at the pump is simply a line we will all have to cross. There is no doubt it will have to get worse before it gets better, and I am really looking forward to better.

Monday, June 16, 2008 in Wall Street
 
Why AAPL is Up

So I wrote this back in January, and I have been wondering why Apple is up the last several days here. It turns out some analyst that follows AAPL like a shadow noticed that the iPhone was fairly sold out across the Nation. History tells us that Apple tends to eliminate supply of a product when the new version is around the corner (sounds easy enough). So the rumor is that the 3G iPhone is on the (near) way and Apple doesn't want to get stuck sitting on a bunch of version 1 iPhones. Very interesting.

Friday, April 04, 2008 in Wall Street
 
John Mayer

I thought this was interesting...

From the Heart...

Friday, March 28, 2008 in Music
 
Obamamania

I have surprised even myself at how my opinions of the presidential race have shifted over time. As the dust from the primaries settle, I am starting to think that my opinion shifting is sure to slow down.

But what is Obamamania? This week, we have received 4 messages on our home phone from Obama telemarketing. Yesterday, we had a family stop by our house doing some door to door promotions for Obama. Certainly that is Obamamania. They were disappointed that both Katie and I had already voted earlier that day, and not for Obama. I did not have the time to ask "why" when they knocked, but I wanted to. Why is a simple question. Why Obama? I just want to know why those who support Obama so passionately do.

Here is my Obamamania.

I hear Obama make a speech, and I'm moved by it. I look at his voting record as a senator, and I'm disappointed (if not disgusted).

I watch Obama's performance at the debates, and I'm impressed. I take note of his various relationships and associations with questionable characters, and I'm disappointed.

So it turns out, when I see the guy on TV, when he opens his mouth, when he inspires the masses; I too get caught up in the Obamamania. But when the rubber meets the road, it turns out he has the most liberal voting record in the history of the senate. Well that doesn't really gel well, when my views typically aren't in line with the far left.

So I am constantly baffled about how on the surface I can be so attracted to a candidate with whom I couldn't disagree with more?

Serving the Illinois State Legislature, Obama voted "Present" 129 times. Present means I'm here at the vote, and I choose not to vote Yes or No. That's essentially showing up to vote and passing, like it's a game of Go Fish. He defends that point in interviews by saying that voting Present is a tradition in Illinois. So indecisiveness is a tradition? For a leader? The President of the USA doesn't get to vote Present. It's yes or no, all day every day; much like any leader. Voting present is a habit that needs breaking.

On government spying, I say let them spy and Obama says no, not even on foreign suspects. That means our agencies must acquire a court order every time they want to tap the phone line of a foreign suspect. I call that thick red tape in the form of delaying productivity.

On partial birth abortion, he voted Present. On lowering the penalty from carrying an unlicensed concealed weapon from felony to misdemeanor, he voted Present. On firing a gun near school grounds, Obama voted Present. On sealing the trial records of Sex-Abuse victims to protect the victim's privacy, he voted present (making himself the only member not supporting the bill.) On protecting the life of a failed abortion, he voted Present. On prohibiting strip clubs from operating within 1000 feet of schools, churches and daycares; he voted Present.

Now keep in mind, voting present aligns with NO, because Present will not get a bill passed. Voting Yes gets bills passed, while No and Present will not. But we'll keep calling it Present, because that's what the vote says.

Even in his book, The Audacity of Hope, he writes, "You must vote yes or no on whatever bill comes up..." Well that is interesting.

So I guess I'm at a point where I just don't get it anymore. Why all the fanfare? Why all the fainting at rallies? Why all the support?

By no means am I saying Hillary and McCain are saints to be praised. I just don't get the run away blind love that Obama receives from so many. Obama coming to Dallas got the same response as U2 did, as if Obama has been building a fan base of millions for 30 plus years.

He says he wants to have an immediate withdraw from Iraq. But if he withdraws from Iraq and turmoil develops there again (in the Middle East) then he'll order troops to go back. I'm sure that would be cheap. Of course he will raise taxes, so maybe that will help with the Leave and Go Back plan.

I wonder what would happen if the US left Iraq. I wonder if things would go bad in the Middle East? I mean, I have no historical reference to draw from, so I just wonder. I mean, it's not like we have sworn enemies growing armies, and taking refuge in nearby territories or anything? I wonder if Oil prices would go so sky high that it would cause serious and long term damage to the US economy. Now, more so than ever, is not the time to mismanage the Middle East.

I am simply truly interested to hear why people support Obama. I don't want hear about Bush, he's not running. I would like to know Why Obama? That's my question.

3
Wednesday, March 05, 2008 in Random
 
Aloha to Eric

Many of you know and have heard Eric Orson sing. From the moment I first walked in the doors of Fellowship Church back in the fall of 1999, his voice was the first voice I heard. Having previously served on praise and worship teams for churches; I was immediately imprisoned by the music and worship at Fellowship Church. For almost 10 years now Eric has led Fellowship Church in song, in worship, in praise, and in prayer. Very few people have the passion, heart, sincerity, and the immeasurable raw talent that Eric has.

Whether it is an event for President George W. Bush, a nation wide church conference, a youth camp, a weekend service at Fellowship Church, a missions group in Africa, or just a small group of ten people; Eric's ministry and passion for music has touched a number of people far to large to be counted. Anywhere in Dallas/Fort Worth, he's likely to be asked for his autograph. Even when in Mexico, or while backpacking in Europe, he's sure to be stopped with the question, "hey, aren't you that guy that sings at Fellowship?"

Little did I know back in 1999 that Eric and I would eventually become close friends. I could not foresee that Eric would invite my future wife to 1824 (the single's ministry) in 2002. I could not foresee that we would eventually rent a house together, serve in ministry together, and eventually stand in each other's weddings. All that to say, I've been blessed to come to know the man that Eric is, not just hear the voice he has.

Eric and his wife Emily are now accepting the challenge to a whole new life adventure. After months of hard consideration and prayer, they are moving to Honolulu. Certainly a once in a lifetime opportunity, Emily has accepted a position with one of the top marine institutes in the country and will be working with dolphins, which is her life long dream.

I know I speak for many when I say they will be missed here on the main land. Eric's ministry, reach, and impact to the masses has no bounds. I have to guess that there is a lucky church somewhere in Hawaii that might soon be blessed the way Fellowship has. I can not wait to see what the future holds.

With much love for the Orson's, we wish them well in their new adventure. If you would like to do the same, feel free to leave a comment here (which he'll get), or comment on his MySpace page at: www.Myspace.com/EricOrson

(Thanks to Bill Harned for the Video Montage)

2
Monday, February 25, 2008 in Music
Ticker Time
 
Where is Everyone?
( World | USA )

This is where you are. Wouldn't it be
nice to know where your web users are?
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