Thoughts on the Bail Out, Financial Crisis

What ever it is, 70 billion, or 700 billion... the bail out of the financial industry will have positive and negative impacts. Positive, because they've basically put a giant band aid on a giant whale.... But the root of what caused the injury still exists. So regardless of how much money the government decides to appropriate to the bail out... it's just a temporary fix. So for positive's sake, it's a quick fix, and might avoid the panicking recession that is at hand.

The negative side for me is the lesson of responsibility. If I tank my company from personal greed and/or stupid decision making, no one is coming to my rescue. I believe at the heart of the credit crisis, mortgage write downs, and other financial collapses is personal greed. And I'm not really hypothesizing here either. There are several cases of a new CEO coming into leadership with a company and in just a year or two they wreck the company having created such a golden parachute in year 1, that the fines and firing that will take place in year two are simply a quick way out, where they can wash their hands of it all. And after all of it, they still have gobs of compensation they created and approved for themselves in year 1. So in those circumstances, there is no accountability.

There is one positive I see with the ridiculous rescue plan. Individual investors like myself can take heart of a certain stability of the markets. I can now throw my money into 10 baskets of good companies, and feel assured that if I picked industry leaders, my money is safe with a higher probability of positive return. With the example of the bail out, if things get bad enough, the government will step in and inject cash to fix the potential recession times. So my fear of my investments tanking, is much less. Sure it's now more of a fixed game, but we are forced to play the game with the rules at hand. It's not just supply and demand anymore. The market won't simply correct itself anymore. The market will correct its speed bumps, but if there's a road crater, it's government to the rescue. The big picture is kind of crappy, but we the individual investors can play this game with the new rules.

And here's a side note on the mortgage crisis. Everyone has been playing a ruthless game of blame for sometime now, and that's really a rope that has no end. There are so many people at fault, you can't just say it's the crooked CEO's, or the predatory lenders, or the dumb people who didn't read their contract and signed mortgages that are way over their pay grade. You can't say it's the real estate investors that spiked up a market so full of hot air that it was bound to deflate. Again, greed is at the forefront of the fault.

Greedy home buyers wanted to get in huge houses with little down, and then bet the farm that their over sized house would appreciate and make them gobs of money. How many millions of people want(ed) to make their millions off real estate? When board games are sold in stores about the industry, that's a sign of a bubble I would say. Lesson learned, the housing market doesn't always go up. But then again, no market does.

Then you have the mortgage industry. In this industry there are zillions and zillions of bees swarming around fishing out the next origination fee. They place a loan, and at minimum they get a point. We'll call it a point, because it sounds a lot better than saying you're going to finance an extra $1000 over the next 30 years so I can put that $1000 (1% of the loan) in my pocket right now, for placing your loan. And that's only on a $100,000 home. The national average is around 200K per home, which makes that one point yield a quick bee bonus of $2,000. Do you think any of these bees might present a not so good situation as great if they are a signature away from a quick $2,000? Many of these bees cared not about honest, ethical, situation appropriate loans. They would just push and fix and sell (which is the industry word) things until they could get their "point" on your loan. And because of this behavior, most of these people aren't working anymore. The days of those points getting passed out like bubble gum are over.

The end result, definitely not laissez-faire. I don't even know if there is a French economic term to describe our current economic state. Some are saying it's the United States of France; not from an ownership point of view, just from an economic governance point of view. That phrase certainly sounds strange, so even if it is accurate, I can't really buy into it. Never the less... and for now... long live the mostly free markets.

Thursday, September 25, 2008 in Wall Street
 
Comments
I agree on most of your points. I would take the blame a step further and add the Bush admin and Congress. McCain (on 60 Min.) blamed both Rep., Dem. for this. And the failure is that no one warned loudly enough to the public that they were investing in corrupt/fraudulent companies. Why is it that the Feds cry foul on bad food, lead paint in toys, and poorly built autos but stay mute while the country's investments go down the toilet?
For those Obama supporters, you can kiss all his tax rebate promises goodbye because now all Fed budgeting will go to funding banks and the war on terror. Don't believe it if any candidate promises tax cuts! It's time for America to invest in itself. We may have avoided a Depression but we're nowhere close to being out of the woods yet.
- Reese
Thursday, September 25, 2008
 
 
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